Thanks to the programmer who wrote it. You do tgaining the hell the system says no matter how smart or dumb you might think it is at that moment. Both the year and the month of April for the Wizards is mixed. A: For more than five decades trend following traders have produced massive profits. Today everyone is trying to replicate his philosophy and results.
There are not a whole lot of different ways that trend following can be done. The minor tweaks may have positive results but the effect is usually very minor. If you spend too much time looking at minor variations of entry rules you risk missing the important parts. The truth is that most trend following system rules do the same thing. They show highly similar results simply because they attempt to achieve the same thing.
By all means, play around with the detailed rules. Just make sure you do that after you have tried the basic strategy. The value in professional trend following strategies come from the diversification. The rules presented here are good enough to achieve results on par with the large trend following futures hedge funds. Making the rules more complex does not aid your performance.
The most common amateur mistake is to spend all the time tweaking entry and exit rules and not enough analyzing position sizing and investment universe. The simple rules presented here are good enough to replicate the performance of many large name trend following hedge funds with high precision and correlation. In my book I detail several trend following trading systems & training course this can be further enhanced and improved upon.
Make no mistake though. The trading system rules is the least important component of your trend following trading strategy. To give each position an equal chance to impact the bottom line, positions must be larger for less volatile markets. This can be achieved many different ways. My core strategy uses Average True Range ATR for this purpose.
ATR measures the average daily price movement of a market. This can serve as a proxy for volatility. Set a target desired daily impact per position. Then calculate how many contracts you need to trade to achieve that based on the ATR. This naturally assumes that volatility remains roughly the same. This is not always the case of course. It reduces the number of trades and lessens the risk of getting caught in whipsaw markets. Vice versa for shorts. Go with the breakout and ride the trend.
Signals are generated on daily closing data and the trade taken on the open the following day. Slippage is accounted for of course as well as trading costs. Exit on three average true range moves against the position from its peak reading. No intraday stops are used, so a close beyond three ATR units are needed for a stop to be triggered the following day.
Trading a trend following system on a single market or only a few different markets is suicidal. There may be long periods, even years, where there simply are no trends in any given market or asset class. The key idea is to trade many markets covering all asset classes at the same time. If you fail to do so, this strategy will simply not work. The investment universe you chose will have a much greater impact than tweaking buy and sell rules, so choose wisely.
You should chose a broad set of markets and avoid too high concentration in any single sector. In the long run, a healthy balance between all major market sectors yields the best results. You can study a broad range of markets on the Trends of the World page, which is updated trend following trading systems & training course with charts and analytics. Thank you in advance for the clarification. PK You might also want to look at regular position rebalacing logic. What platform would you recommend for guys like you?
You could also mention a decent brokerage that you are using. I find RightEdge to be one of the very best platforms. Choice of broker depends very much on who you are and what you want to do. There are lots of them targeting retail market, in particular in the FX space. Use a real broker, with an actual banking license in a trusted country. Thanks, Clay I wrote a little about it here: delim-sami.ru In brief, I find most of these scaling methods to be based on a gambling mindset and a lack of understanding of mathematics.
If prices are non-random and if markets tend to trend, then adding in the direction of the trend seems like a reasonable way to reduce losses, manage whipsaw, and improve the size of profits on winning trades. Have I got that wrong? I find the whole hero worship culture to be highly irrational and outright dangerous.
Imitating people just serves to reduce critical thinking. What if Trader Y spends half an hour yodeling in the morning? The original turtle rules have become some sort of weird religion. They have very little in common with the modern CTA industry. Research is moving forward and the business is changing. Some of the very best CTA hedge fund managers I know, with billions under management, had never heard of the turtles before I brought the subject up over beer… The whole culture of worshiping certain traders is very much a retail thing.
Model the turtle strategy. Curtis released the rules a long time ago and you can download them for free. Check how many times over you would have lost all your money. That was a long time ago though and now research has come much further. My advise is that you listen to ideas from all kinds of sources, but trust none. Then you do your own research.
The latter is about targeting a yearly delim-sami.ru on a portfolio basis and requires constant comparison of realized vola to target vola, rebalancing very frequently. Would you say that scaling into positions as they did was a flaw i. Clearly they forgot the jet engine. These guys, and other lesser known people, laid the ground work. Study it and learn from it. The original turtle system uses extreme risk.
It was traded at a time when this system worked really well. Much of the core ideas from those days are used today, but in a very different way. Just as the ideas of the Wright brothers are still incorporated in airplanes. The business has evolved and matured though. I used EMA, but forgot to mention that in the book. Indicators are never trend following trading systems & training course. The simplified model I showed in the book can be made much more simple.
Try a simple X Months Momentum model for instance, where you go long if the price is above X months ago, else short. Amazingly simple, but it captures the bulk of trend following performance. First of all, thank you. I am very impressed by the materials on your website, I plan to buy your book, and I am very greateful for the information you shared. I am searching for a mechanical end-of-day trading system that I could follow with confidence and discipline.
I would like to present the results of my research and I hope you will be willing to answer my three questions. I estimated a quite conservative spread and comissions. Is this good enough? Does it look like acceptable result to you? I know this was not the best time for any trend following system, but I anticipate it will be very hard to stick to this system should a new drawdown like this trend following trading systems & training course. Here is the link to my backtesting report with equity curve screenshots.
Have a look for EQUITY CURVE charts. So I excluded these markets from portfolio. Shall I trade it on commodities and forex with my paramaters? Did it make money on ALL markets in your backtest? I enabled comments on the file I shared abouve, so you can comment it as you review it. This similarity, I think, has two implications. I pasted the link also to the document I linked in my comment above.
I hope this is insightful for others as well… and I am looking forward to comments. Keep in mind that the model I describe is a demo model used to approximate what the CTA industry has been doing for the past few decades. In fact, my only regret is not making the model in the book even simpler. A five year drawdown is not acceptable. But it could still happen. I would recommend trading all markets with the same rules.
Making rules that adapt to market characteristics could make sense. Any individual market or position is irrelevant. The only thing that matters is the end result. Hello Andreas, bought and read both your books, great stuff. I find that I often have rather large open profits while the small losses eat away at the cash, leaving me with smaller and smaller position sizes.
Regards:Bengt Risk has nothing to do with stop distance. Risk absolutely needs to be measured on a portfolio level. The amount of available cash is irrelevant to such calculations. Thanks a lot, I read Curtis Faiths book goodby the way prior to yours and assumed you meant something similar. There are many of these usual ways authors describe themselves to cover the total lack of real background. It always also shows on the terminology that they use. Read books by Meb Faber, Katy Kaminski, Ernie Chan and such people to get the bigger picture.
Most retail level trading books just muddle the picture. Thanks for taking the time. Over Reliance on indicators and terrible multiple time frame analysis, poor risk management at times. Now I just watch out for price action and trends using other confluence factors like EMA. How do you put tighter stops without getting stopped out, because sometimes I get stopped out with retracements from prevailing trends.
Sometimes the previous swing lows on larger time frames are too large and on smaller time frames seem like noise? Do you think this estrategy also work in weekly timeframe? Or trading once a week? Your email address will not be published. Getting Started with Python for Finance. Why I Left a Comfortable Management Career. Getting Started with Python Modeling — Making an Equity Momentum Model.
A Very Different Kind of Trend Model. RightEdge Automation and Reporting. Core Trend Following Rules. You might also want to look at regular position rebalacing logic. Thank you in advance for any idea! In the more accessible segment, I like Saxo Switzerland. I wrote a little about it here: delim-sami.ru. In brief, I find most of these scaling methods to be based on a gambling mindset and a lack of understanding of mathematics.
Most of us in the business target a certain vola and rebalance regularly to stay close to it. Pyramiding and such things are strictly amateur. Some of the very best CTA hedge fund managers I know, with billions under management, had never heard of the turtles before I brought the subject up over beer…. The whole culture of worshiping certain traders is very much a retail thing. Run a backtest on this model for the past few decades.
I have a few years of discretionary trading experience, but no consistent profits. I backtested the system you describe here, with Amibroker. In short, your system made money. Shall I trade all markets using common rules? I understand I should not curve fit EMAs and channel and ATRs for each market… I know… but maybe it is valid to have separate rules for stock indices and rates and separate for commodities and forex?
Trend following trading systems & training course should I keep searching for a system that makes money on ALL markets? Thanks a lot in advance! Sorry for long delay. Risk has nothing to do with stop distance. Leave a Reply Cancel reply. Stocks on the Move. State of Trend Following. Sign up for the FREE Clenow Research Newsletter!
A SIMPLE TREND TRADING STRATEGY
0 4 Hour Forex Trend Following Strategy With Moving Average. Here’s a great versatile trading strategy that can be used to buy and sell trend reversals or to buy.
Podcast & Education for Trend Following, Absolute Returns, Risk Management, Psychology, Uncertainty & Black Swans.
Home; Articles. Articles Archive; Premium Articles; The Books. Stocks on the Move; Following the Trend ; Buy the Book; Forewords by Curtis Faith; Endorsements for.